May 9, 2013

Sohn Investment Conference 2013

Read in FT's Alphaville:

3) Global figure most associated with negative views: the one and only Ben Bernanke.

My view: to compare their (Sohn's puppets) understanding of the trade-offs in today's monetary policy environment is like comparing Einhorn's tie knots with those of Bernanke ...

(Better don't do it).  Of course we would all like to live in an easier world: one with lower debt, higher expected returns; one where we all can be successful HF managers leaving office at 5 pm and running triathlons on weekends.

Alas, it turns out that the cocktail of low inflation and a reach for yield have sent risky asset prices soaring, depressing future expected returns. Now Wall Street blames Ben Bernanke for making their job a tad more difficult. They say it's distorting the economy and the financial markets.

Well, the truth of the matter is that the Fed's actions weren't that hard to anticipate. There are only two metrics in their dual mandate: full employment and price stability. Both have been lagging the targets for some time. Inflation has been incredibly subdued and there are no signals of any dramatic change. Wall Street's mandate was to position itself to benefit from the world that was coming. They, the asset owners, should have benefited the most from the new normal of lower nominal rates. They chose to be cautious and have lagged the indices since the market bottomed; that's fine, but it just doesn't feel right to hear these guys putting blame on Bernanke because they don't know what to buy now.

The decisive action taken by chairman Ben Bernanke and his FOMC colleagues has been fundamental to underpin this recovery. It only takes a peek outside the US to know that it feels good to be an asset owner in the US. Maybe our super-investors should invest in Europe instead, who could not but admire the rectitude and righteousness of the Bundesbank?   "buena suerte amigo"