Built to Last - book review

Built to last is a nicely written (and read) book by Jim Collins and Jerry Porras that has greatly influenced the management and consulting thinking in the latter decades.

Personally I found it Storytelling at the level of 'time-telling', rather than 'clock-building'.

Because (IMO) the authors fail to address the special circumstances in which those significant events occured. The US economy has changed significantly in these decades, and 'any idea' could end in a great product/service ... which could lead to a great company (if indeed the owners/managers made use of the "best practices -which is the underlying story behind the book).

Nowadays (IMO), any entrepreneur really needs a big idea or good specific-knowledge of the field where he wants to break in, because otherwise the difference between his cost of capital and that of the competitors already established in the market is plainly too big.

Corolary: make use of the best practices. E.g.: align management and employees interests with that of the firm, ...

They recommend to 1) make Big Hairy Audacious Goals (BHAGs): long-term vision projects that are supposed to be so daring in its scope as to seem impossible for outsiders; 2) Evolutionary Progress: Try a lot of stuff and keep what works; and 3) Good-enough never is, driven self-Improvement.

Financial Mkts, where we are? and where we are going?

... only Bernanke knows

In an environment of (high to) low interest rates, growth companies (valuations) rise.

In an environment of (low to) high interest rates, growth companies decline.

In the current market situation, I think Bonds are poised to a significant fall in the med / long term. Thus, I like value companies more than growth companies.

Favourites among them: big franchise companies who have maintained a good operating margin through time (are price settlers), and have little debt: KO, JNJ, PG, MCD, MRK ...

VALUATION MODELS (PE / EVtoEBITDA / RIM)

PE is the most popular ratio. It is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income earned by the firm per share.

It depends on:

- Growth (expected EPS g)

- Risk (Ke)

- Payout ratio (assuming constant growth, therefore ROE)

10y PE used by R. Schiller
Normalized PE used by J. Grantham: Calculate normalized earnings by multiplying a normalized profit margin (avg is 5.5%) by current P/S of the share / index. Apply the PE multiple (from 1900 to 2005, arithmetic avg 14, geometric avg 16)

Normalized PE for the SP500:

Calculate normalized earnings by multiplying a normalized profit margin by sales per share, assume 6% profit growth for the next 20 years – which is the long-term growth rate for earnings – apply a multiple of 15x – which is the long-term average PE of the market – then discount this 20-year expected S&P 500 target back to the present to calculate the expected capital gain. Then add the current dividend yield to get my total expected return. Currently, this model is forecasting a total return to equities over the next 20 years of 6.7%, well below the long-term average of 10%.

Enterprise Multiple (EV/EBITDA) looks at the cash flows before interest expenses.

It is very used by professionals (e.g. LBOs, MBOs, PE), because they could buy the outstanding equity and debt to change the leverage of the firm, and extract more value if possible.

It also leads to lower multiples' values (which is good, looks more attractive to buyers lol:)

RIM ...

would be the perfect valuation measure. Very appealing intellectually.

Takes into consideration the opportunity cost for the shareholders and examines whether the company created value up and above the broad market risk/return trade-off.

Current Valuation by Forward PE:

1. Calculate normalized earnings by multiplying a normalized profit margin by sales per share (P/S)
2. Assume 6% profit growth for the next 20 years – which is the long-term growth rate for earnings
3. Apply a multiple of 15x – which is the long-term average PE of the market
4. Discount this 20-year expected S&P 500 target back to the present to calculate the expected capital gain.
5. Add the current dividend yield to get the total expected return.

... currently, this model is forecasting a total return to equities over the next 20 years of 6.xx%, well below the long-term average of 10%. For how long Bernanke may sustain the house of cards (wealth effect among US consumers) ??

Angela Merkel warned that Germany could abandon the euro

"If this is the sort of club the euro is becoming, perhaps Germany should leave,"

Altough the Euro area would lose the corner stone, and the best example of how economic rigor leads to well-grounded and stable growth, I think it is one of the best ideas I have recently heard from any politician in Europe.

First of all, the current situation of Europe is unsustainable:

• With the current spreads, the PIiGS can not bear such a cost of the debt indefinitely,
• The longer it takes to change their current situation, the more they'll have dig in the whole, and
• The greater the economic differences between some leading countries (DE, NE, ...) and the tail of the animal (GR, IRE, PT, and SP)

With this scenario, my favorite solution is the so called 'United States of Europe', which would imply to go beyond the monetary union, to achieve a fiscal union (which Spain really needs to get rid of half of its political class).

The second solution is to go thorough some kind of disintegration in the Euro Club.

Much has been said about the countries that should leave the euro and the costs embedded.

'PIG'-countries are all small , that greatly benefit from a common currency, and would find expensive the logistics to leave the Euro.

On the other hand, Germany has the size to bear its own currency much better, and there are fewer advantages for them to be in the euro than to smaller countries (e.g.: benelux)

One solution could read like this:

PIIGS remain in the Euro, so that their liabilities do not appreciate due to the change in currency.

And the list of healthy countries, create their own currency and kick the can.

The banks will suffer equally because their liabilities will be denominated in a 'foreign currency' that will lose value, but ... the ECB can open a window of opportunity for them to exit.

The results are similar in both arrangements: an array of countries much more similar to each other than the current mix in the Eur. Because the third solution, to do nothing, to leave the differences between the core and the periphery to increase, provoking mutual nettle when default events occur is (IMO) the worse one.

Trichet made a good step forward calling for a fiscal union in the Euro the last month, but he needs to be piercing: no politian will be willilng to give up its 'kingdom', and action is needed asap.

Regrets of the Dying

Regrets of the Dying: "

Bronnie Ware works in pallitative care -- with patients near the end of their life. In this post, she writes powerfully about the the top regrets that have surfaced again and again from her patients on their death beds. I've pasted the list of five below.

1. I wish I'd had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.

This was the most common regret of all. When people realise that their life is almost over and look back clearly on it, it is easy to see how many dreams have gone unfulfilled. Most people had not honoured even a half of their dreams and had to die knowing that it was due to choices they had made, or not made.

It is very important to try and honour at least some of your dreams along the way. From the moment that you lose your health, it is too late. Health brings a freedom very few realise, until they no longer have it.

2. I wish I didn't work so hard.

This came from every male patient that I nursed. They missed their children's youth and their partner's companionship. Women also spoke of this regret. But as most were from an older generation, many of the female patients had not been breadwinners. All of the men I nursed deeply regretted spending so much of their lives on the treadmill of a work existence.

By simplifying your lifestyle and making conscious choices along the way, it is possible to not need the income that you think you do. And by creating more space in your life, you become happier and more open to new opportunities, ones more suited to your new lifestyle.

3. I wish I'd had the courage to express my feelings.

Many people suppressed their feelings in order to keep peace with others. As a result, they settled for a mediocre existence and never became who they were truly capable of becoming. Many developed illnesses relating to the bitterness and resentment they carried as a result.

We cannot control the reactions of others. However, although people may initially react when you change the way you are by speaking honestly, in the end it raises the relationship to a whole new and healthier level. Either that or it releases the unhealthy relationship from your life. Either way, you win.

4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends.

Often they would not truly realise the full benefits of old friends until their dying weeks and it was not always possible to track them down. Many had become so caught up in their own lives that they had let golden friendships slip by over the years. There were many deep regrets about not giving friendships the time and effort that they deserved. Everyone misses their friends when they are dying.

It is common for anyone in a busy lifestyle to let friendships slip. But when you are faced with your approaching death, the physical details of life fall away. People do want to get their financial affairs in order if possible. But it is not money or status that holds the true importance for them. They want to get things in order more for the benefit of those they love. Usually though, they are too ill and weary to ever manage this task. It is all comes down to love and relationships in the end. That is all that remains in the final weeks, love and relationships.

5. I wish that I had let myself be happier.

This is a surprisingly common one. Many did not realise until the end that happiness is a choice. They had stayed stuck in old patterns and habits. The so-called 'comfort' of familiarity overflowed into their emotions, as well as their physical lives. Fear of change had them pretending to others, and to their selves, that they were content. When deep within, they longed to laugh properly and have silliness in their life again.

When you are on your deathbed, what others think of you is a long way from your mind. How wonderful to be able to let go and smile again, long before you are dying.

(hat tip @bfeld)

"

The story of Luis Caselles Perez

Every year, thousands of finance students look forward to break into one of the most exciting businesses in the World: Investment Banking. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan,… there are several “big ass banks” to which most of the candidates would feel naturally attracted to, but competition is so intense that not everyone is able to start such a promising career.

Today, I would like to talk about a story that reached my inbox. Last week, Luis Caselles Perez’s personal website went viral. The website does not contain anything unusual…. Not even a blog, linkedin or twitter … it’s just a CV with a couple of sections in which Luis talks about his dreams, and inspiration to get what he has always wanted to get: to work for an investment bank.

As I have heard, the web-based CV was transmitted via e-mail within the investment banking world in London. It contained some pictures of him wearing a suit, but the website became so popular that he decided to take them out due to privacy concerns. Apparently, some people have made fun of all this, but I have to say that the approach is so innovative that I would be surprised if he fails to get the job! It is not an excessive video-resume (forbidden in finance!), but a delicate and stylish way to make people be aware of him. If you were wondering, his CV is actually very good… and he is only 21 years old!

Rumours on takeovers and scandals are quickly transmitted in financial markets; surely, a web-based CV is the least important thing to be seen in a trading floor or M&A desk. Nevertheless, a lot of people are now aware of Luis! It is an amazing case because we are not talking about a product or a YouTube video that has become viral… we are talking about a person that has become viral.

Luis, if you read this: Good luck with your job search; I know some people did not like the idea of a website, but I am pretty sure you will be a successful man.

Jeremy Grantham on Asset Management

On the importance of Asset Allocation:

…That incredible discrepancy…says the main event in investing should be getting the big picture right. It’s nice to pick stocks, but how many good stocks do you have to pick in a whole portfolio to equal that incredible move between the biggest asset class in the world, US equities, and the third or fourth biggest asset class, emerging markets? It’s these movements between the big asset classes that make you money.

On his current view of blue chips as the best investing opportunity at the moment given the general over-valuation of bonds and equities.

Being (still) British, this is likely to be my nth opportunity to show a stiff upper lip. There is, though, one quite friendly influence lurking around that may help us lovers of quality stocks. They are getting so cheap relative to the market that a wider range of buyers is finally noticing them. In the third quarter, in a market up a significant 12%, quality stocks held the market. To say the least, this has not been the law of nature recently: for the past eight years, quality stocks usually won in down quarters and usually lost badly in extreme up quarters.

On his current view on emerging markets

Everyone and his dog are now overweight emerging equities, and most stated intentions are to go higher and higher. Emerging markets are admittedly fully priced, but they still sell at a decent discount to the 75% of the S&P 500 that are not quality stocks – a particularly strange quirk in a strange market. With their high commodity exposure, their strong finances, and their strong GDP growth especially, I believe that they will sell at a premium to the S&P, perhaps a big one.

Escenario Macro

En abril la banca griega ha perdido depósitos por 5.7 bn. sumando ya un descenso de 15.6 bn. en el año, más de 10.5 bn. desde depósitos de familias. La asistencia en liquidez desde el ECB es básica para la banca griega en estos momentos, donde los mercados de financiación internacional están cerrados despues de que las agencias le hayan retirado el rating de "inversion" a Grecia.

Provocara la salida de capitales una crisis ? o el BCE cubrira el descubierto??