Mar 12, 2011

A random walk down Wall Street

... is probably one of the very best books about financial markets for non-professionals.

In combination with Security Analyis / Intelligent Investor, the 'novice' investor could already assemble a good understanding of the investment tradeoffs, and pick up some strategies to beat the markets.lol. Summarizing:

  • There is a premium for bearing risk in the financial markets: the return on holding risky assets has been higher than the risk-free rate of return.
    E.g.: Good quality corporate bonds and equities have generally beaten the cash / T-Bond investor. We should take advantage of it: buy and hold a portfolio including bonds and equities.
    Tip suggested: Do not spend much time researching the market. You'd rather buy the same amount of money at regular intervals of time regardless of the market conditions.

  • Buy value, i.e.: good quality stocks with stable cash flow. "Buy stock in a company that is so good that even an idiot can run it, because sooner or later one will... Warren Buffett. Hilarious, and quite applicable to the TBTF companies (50% due to idiots misalignment of incentives, 50% due to the complexity of the task).

  • Be diversified: spread your investments across different investment (sectors) or even asset classes. Including geographical diversification.
    The big franchise firms recommended in the 'value school' pass both tests, as they are truly international E.g.: KO, PG, JNJ, KFT, GSK.

  • When a crisis comes due ... your value shares should cope better than the average market; your cash holdings even better than your 'value' investments; and your T-Bonds may even draw a smile on your face.

    In my opinion, if you have been cautious during the greed-driven cycle with a conservative portfolio, you could and should take advantage of the soundness of it during panic moments: that's the opportunity to bear higher risk aiming significant returns rotating your portfolio towards riskier assets (such as, for example, stocks that are more sensitive to the business cycle (luxury, automotive, discretionary goods in grl.), and/or index investing across the world -e.g.: SP500, HK, Singapore, South Korea, India, Brazil- and maybe even better if they are denominated in their own emerging currencies.

    In the 'flight to quality' movement, emerging markets assets will suffer a double slap on their face: capital losses (market prices drop), and currency depreciation.

note: the last bullet point is more about my investing philosophy than about malkiel/buffett/graham's ideas.

note II: if bonds and stocks are expensive (which should happen half of the time:), then do not buy so much in securities, and hold more cash (long volatility strategy:), which gives you the real option to benefit of the market jitters.
See chart below about the real return of cash, bonds and equities during the 70's.



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