Be carefull with the green shoots. Economic data / analysis is not all pointing towards a rosy future.
On the one hand, bigger than expected earning forecasts during the last week were released, supporting the rally experienced in the stock markets since march (because actually the earnings' improvement was in fact bigger than the rise by the stock markets).
But on the other hand, it was just released yesterday the June GEAB N°36, with gloomy perspectives for the months to come. Forecasting payment defaults in the UK and the US
... and (spanish):
Estas son las olas principales:
1- La ola del paro masivo. -> Massive unemployment.
2- La ola de las quiebras en serie, empresas, bancos, inmobiliario, estados, regiones, ciudades.
-> Wave of city councils, states, banks and corporation defaults.
3- La ola de la crisis terminal de los bonos del tesoro de EEUU, del dólar y de la libra y la vuelta a la inflación.
-> US' bond crisis. USD and GBP currency crisis, and back to (super)inflation times
Hope these guys are wrong bk otherwise the green shoots are going to get burned during the summer
So, be prepared for worst economic performance, and get a neutral/bearish market portfolio!
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GEAB 36: http://tiny.cc/Qu0Qj
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