Aug 14, 2009

Pairs-Trading Strategies @ personal portoflio

I have made some changes recently in my portfolio because I think we have to be prepared for uncertainty in the financial markets.

As a consequence of that, my strategy is almost market neutral.
These are my positions (for a 1700 eur power purchase) :

POP.MC - 600 @ 6.75 e
ACX.MC - 270 @ 14.11 e
MT + 123 @ 24.7 e
NOK + 400 @ 9.13 e

portfolio
--
I think Arcelor Mittal will outperform Acerinox. The last one have not dropped so much during the downturn in the financial markets, and that is just because it has fewer liquidity / # trades.

Secondly, Nokia makes good cellphones (Does Customer Satisfaction Translate to Excess Stock Returns?, the sector´s outlook is bright and the shares have underperformed the market and its sector recently. Certainly it is a risky proposition, since we do not know when the company will pick up again. But .... I like this moment to buy the stock, I think it may have been over-sold.

On the other hand, the Spanish bank, Popular will suffer from spain's PM.
Zapatero and his socialist ideas are not the best macro strategies to deal with the current recession. So the levered position of the bank in the spanish housing market has gloomy perspectives unless BIG! changes in public policy take place -diminishing the taxes, subsidies, government power, government cars, travels, # wages ... it is just not gonna happen.

No comments: